Stock Bond Correlation Over Time: 33 Years of SPY vs Treasuries, and Why It’s +0.42 Now (Python)
Stock bond correlation over time, 1993-2026: SPY vs Treasuries was -0.29 in 2000-2021, +0.42 now. Inflation link, 60/40 impact + Python.
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Sequence of Returns Risk Example: Same 25 SPY Years, Reversed, and $1M Ends at $119,235 vs $3.77M (Python)
Sequence of returns risk example: same 25 SPY years, $1M, 4% rule. Real order ends at $119,235, reversed at $3.77M. Charts, fix + Python.
Missing the Best Days in the Market: Skip SPY’s 10 Best Days Since 1993 and $313,613 Becomes $136,082 (Python)
Missing the best days in the market, tested: skip SPY’s 10 best days since 1993 and $10k ends at $136,082, not $313,613 (−57%). Charts + Python.
Dividend Reinvestment Calculator: $10,000 in SPY Became $83,195 With DRIP vs $59,123 Without (Python)
Dividend reinvestment calculator on real data: $10k in SPY became $83,195 with DRIP vs $59,123 as cash since 2000. VYM, SCHD, QQQ, taxes, Python.
60/40 Portfolio Max Drawdown: −35.8% in 2008, but Only 3.7 Points of Cushion in 2022 (Python)
60/40 portfolio max drawdown: −35.8% in 2008 vs −55.3% for stocks, but only a 3.7-point cushion in 2022. Daily data since 1986, tables, Python.
How Long Does It Take the Stock Market to Recover From a Crash? Median 2.1 Years (Python)
How long does it take the stock market to recover from a crash? S&P 500 median: 2.1 years across 12 crashes since 1928. Depth table, dividends, Python.
Sharpe Ratio vs Sortino Ratio: A Sharpe Tie Became 2.08 vs 1.65 (Python)
Sharpe ratio vs Sortino ratio in Python: Bitcoin and QQQ tied on Sharpe (0.98 vs 0.97) over 10 years, but Sortino scored them 2.08 vs 1.65. Here’s why.
How Often to Rebalance Portfolio? Once a Year (39 Trades Matched 477 in 40 Years)
How often to rebalance portfolio? Once a year: in a 40-year 60/40 Python backtest, 39 trades matched monthly’s 477 on Sharpe with a smaller drawdown.
Lump Sum vs DCA S&P 500: A 3-Month DCA Lost Money More Often Than Investing at Once
Lump sum vs DCA S&P 500 since 1988: lump sum won 65-78% of 453 start months, and DCA barely changed the odds of a losing year. Python script included.
Compare My Portfolio to the S&P 500: Why a 3.7-Point Loss Can Look Like a Win (Python)
How to compare my portfolio to the S&P 500 the right way: a Python shadow benchmark on 5 years of real data turns a fake +1.5-point win into a 3.7-point loss.
Be a Reply Guy on X: The 80/20 Math of Growing Your Social Media Brand
My very limited time on X has already shown that posts ranked by number of expression is highly non-linear. Maybe Zipf or Pareto distributed? The first plot shows each post sorted by impressions (rank 1 = most impressions). You’ll see a steep drop from the top few posts, then a long tail of low-impression posts. … Read more
This Finviz Screener Finds Recession-Proof Stocks — Four Variables Suggested by AI
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice – just financial entertainment. TLDR: These are the four variables to screen to find recession proof stocks according to financial research (e.g., Morningstar) Here’s the video I recorded: What is a Recession? A recession is simply a broad, painful slowdown in the economy: falling output, jobs, incomes, production, and … Read more