This cool thing is called Full Self-Driving (Supervised), or FSD for short.

Right now, people in places like America, China, Australia, and New Zealand can use it.

But in Europe, it’s not ready yet because of strict rules about car safety.

Tesla is working super hard to get permission. They are talking a lot with people in charge in the Netherlands.

Tesla hopes to show in February 2026 that FSD is safe.

If it works there, other European countries might say yes too!

To show everyone how good it is, Tesla is giving free rides right now. You sit in the passenger seat while a Tesla worker drives, and the car does the work. These rides started in Germany, France, and Italy.

So many people wanted to try it that Tesla made it longer — until the end of March 2026! Now it’s also in Denmark and Switzerland.

People who tried it say it’s amazing.

The car drives smoothly in narrow streets, busy cities, and even construction zones. It’s still “supervised,” which means a person has to watch, but it’s way smarter than regular driving help.

Europe has tough rules to keep roads safe, and that’s good!

But Tesla says FSD can make roads even safer because it doesn’t get tired or distracted like people sometimes do.

So, when can you nap on the way to the Mediterranean? Probably early 2026, if everything goes well. Hang on, European Tesla friends — it’s coming soon!

Disclaimer: We used Grok for some of the image material and content.

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Everybody agrees on the importance of Optimus for TSLA investment case.

We can ball-park the profit per TSLA bot in the long-term ($5k – $50k lifetime value for TSLA)

How many TSLA bots will we have though? Say 12/31/2035

I feel there are 2-3 orders of magnitude variation so I thought a quick poll might be useful (collective intelligence).

Why is this relevant?

Here’s a very simple profit model as a function of number of units and profit per unit (NFA):

• 0.1M bots @ $5k LTV ==> $0.5B profit
• 1M bots @ $10k LTV ==> $10B profit
• 10M bots @ $10k LTV ==> $100B profit
• 1B bots @ $15k LTV ==> $15T profit

The profit story is more dependent on the number of humanoids and less dependent on the profit per unit.

The number of units dominates the profit story.

Tesla aims to produce 1M bots per year by 2030 but how will the growth look like?

Here’s a sand-bagged case from Elon’s target of 1M robots produced in 2030:

• 2025: 2,000
• 2026: 8,000
• 2027: 40,000
• 2028: 150,000
• 2029: 300,000
• 2030: 500,000 <– cumulative 1,000,000 units produced by end of 2030
• 2031: 1,500,000
• 2032: 3,000,000
• 2033: 5,000,000
• 2034: 7,000,000
• 2035: 10,000,000

That would yield a rough 10M x $10k = $100B profit in 2035. The humanoid segment market cap could be 20-40 time that, i.e., $2T-$4T.

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Key takeaways:

• Manufacturing is starting to take shape. Tesla’s update deck explicitly says lines are being installed now, a precursor to volume production.
• Near-term reveal, then iteration. Elon Musk said Optimus V3 is slated for a Q1 2026 unveil, with a production-intent prototype targeted to show in that window. He also emphasized rolling hardware changes even after start of production, rather than a frozen design.
• Ambition (and risk) dialed up. Musk talked about building toward a million-unit Optimus line over time and framed the program as a major future business. On the risk side, Tesla called out the hard problem of dexterous hands/forearms and the grind of making those parts manufacturable at scale.

Verbatim from Elon (Q3’25 call)

• “It’ll seem like a human in a robot suit.”
• “Optimus will be an incredible surgeon, for example.”
• “Optimus at scale is the infinite money glitch.”
• On upside, “Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue.”
• “Normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year,” adding they’ll likely end up with “several thousand.”

Bottom line: Q3’25 didn’t give deployment stats, but it delivered what matters for 2026—lines going in, a V3 reveal on the calendar, and a candid acknowledgement that hand dexterity + scalable hardware are the toughest gates to clear.

Tesla Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Key Updates on Humanoid Robots (Optimus)

Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call, held on October 22, 2025, featured CEO Elon Musk providing significant updates on the Optimus humanoid robot program. While the company reported record revenue of $28.1 billion (up 12% YoY) and vehicle deliveries, the discussion emphasized Tesla’s pivot toward AI and robotics as core growth drivers. Optimus was positioned as a transformative product, leveraging Tesla’s real-world AI expertise from its vehicle fleet, but Musk acknowledged substantial engineering and supply chain challenges. Below is a summary of the main updates:

Production and Timeline

• Production Lines Underway: Tesla is installing “first-generation production lines” for Optimus, with a focus on vertical integration due to the lack of an existing supply chain for humanoid robots. Musk noted that Tesla must manufacture many components in-house, drawing on its automotive manufacturing expertise.
• Prototype Reveal: A production-intent prototype will be unveiled in Q1 2026 (likely February or March).
• Volume Production: Low-volume production is targeted to begin in late 2025, with a ramp-up to a 1 million units per year run rate by the end of 2026. Musk described this as an ambitious goal, requiring “incredible execution.”
• Design Iteration: The hardware design will remain unfrozen even after initial production starts, allowing for ongoing improvements based on real-world testing.

Capabilities and Current Deployment

• Real-World Operations: Optimus robots are already operating 24/7 inside Tesla’s engineering headquarters in Palo Alto, California. Visitors can interact with them—for example, asking a robot to guide them around the building—demonstrating basic navigation and interaction skills.
• AI Integration: Musk highlighted that most of Tesla’s vehicle AI (e.g., Full Self-Driving vision systems) transfers directly to Optimus, enabling rapid progress in tasks like dexterity and environmental awareness. Recent demos (pre-earnings) showed Optimus learning Kung Fu moves via AI, not teleoperation.
• Dexterity Challenges: Developing a robotic hand as capable as a human’s remains a “difficult engineering challenge,” leading to intense Friday/Saturday engineering sessions. Musk called it “incredibly difficult” overall, but emphasized Tesla’s unique position combining AI scaling, manufacturing, and dexterous hardware.

Strategic Importance and Market Vision

• Economic Impact: Musk reiterated that Optimus could “unlock the global economy” by handling unsafe, repetitive, or boring tasks, with potential for billions of units worldwide. He envisions it as so lifelike that “it won’t even seem like a robot—it’ll seem like a human in a robot suit. You’ll need to poke it to believe it’s real.”
• Investment Needs: Progress ties into Tesla’s AI chip ramp-up (e.g., AI5 rollout via Samsung and TSMC), with excess compute allocatable to robots if vehicle demand varies.
• Investor Context: Analysts pressed on Optimus’s timeline and utility, with Musk framing it as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity, though no near-term sales guidance was given beyond internal use.

These updates align with pre-earnings hype on X, where Musk teased Optimus’s potential (e.g., “Wait until you see what Tesla does with Optimus”) and shared demos like the robot at the Tron: Ares premiere. Overall, Optimus remains in early stages but was a focal point, underscoring Tesla’s bet on robotics amid softer auto margins.

Sources (plain links):
https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q3-2025-Update.pdf
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3156168/q3-2025-tesla-inc-earnings-call-transcript
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/tesla-earnings-stock-results-q3-musk/card/musk-says-optimus-v3-is-ready-for-a-q1-demo-it-ll-seem-like-a-human-in-a-robot-suit–Ennygz8KzS0reFhzGQEO
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tesla-q3-earnings-updates-investors-hone-elon-musks-outlook-after-new-model-3-y-2025-10-22/

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1. Optimus Production Cost – Tesla aims to reduce Optimus’ production cost to $20,000 per unit at scale, though early units might cost $100,000+ due to limited volume.
2. Optimus Sale Price – Tesla targets a sale price of $25,000 per unit, initially higher ($100,000+ for early enterprise buyers) before economies of scale reduce costs.
3. Adoption Potential – If robots prove effective, Optimus could replace human workers in factories, logistics, retail, and elder care, where full-time labor costs $30,000–$50,000 per year.
4. Sales Estimates (Optimistic) – By 2029, Tesla could sell 200,000+ robots per year, generating $5 billion in revenue annually at a 30% gross margin (~$1.5B gross profit).
5. Sales Estimates (Realistic) – If scaling is slower, Tesla might sell 50,000 robots per year by 2029, with $1.5 billion annual revenue and $300 million gross profit (20% margin).
6. Sales Estimates (Pessimistic) – If adoption lags, Tesla may only sell a few thousand total units by 2029, keeping revenue below $500 million, possibly running the segment at a loss.
7. Market Cap Impact (Optimistic) – If Optimus reaches $1B in profit by 2029 with high growth, Tesla’s valuation could rise by $50 billion or more, potentially pushing total market cap above $1.5–$2 trillion.
8. Market Cap Impact (Realistic) – With slower adoption (~50k units/year), Tesla’s market cap might reach $1–1.2 trillion by 2029, with Optimus adding $20–30 billion in value.
9. Market Cap Impact (Pessimistic) – If Optimus remains a niche project, Tesla’s market cap may stay around $600–800 billion, with little contribution from humanoid robots.
10. Tesla’s Production Scaling Goal – Musk envisions 1 million Optimus robots per year long-term, though hitting even 200k per year by 2029 would be ambitious.
11. Factory Automation Influence – Tesla plans to deploy thousands of Optimus robots in its own Gigafactories by 2025, using them as an internal testbed before wider sales.
12. Competitors – Agility Robotics (Digit), Boston Dynamics (Atlas), and startups like Figure AI could challenge Tesla, with Agility already building a 10,000-robot-per-year factory.
13. Regulatory & Labor Risks – Governments might impose safety regulations or robot taxes, and labor unions may resist widespread robotic workforce replacements.
14. Consumer Market Uncertainty – While Tesla envisions home robots, a $25,000 price tag is too high for mass adoption, making business applications the primary focus for now.
15. Historical Adoption Patterns – Industrial robots took decades to reach 3 million units globally, meaning a humanoid revolution could be slower than Musk predicts unless major breakthroughs occur.

Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot represents a bold expansion beyond electric vehicles, aiming to transform labor-intensive industries with automation. This analysis evaluates the Optimus segment’s potential contribution to Tesla’s market capitalization over the next five years. We consider direct sales to businesses and consumers, estimate production costs and pricing via first principles, assess likely adoption rates by industry, and outline three scenarios – Optimistic, Realistic, Pessimistic – for robot adoption and financial outcomes. We then apply a valuation approach using revenue and earnings multiples, referencing historical automation curves, while highlighting key risks (technological challenges, competition, and regulatory hurdles).

Tesla’s Optimus Gen-2 Humanoid Robot (2024), showcasing Tesla’s vision of a bi-pedal general-purpose robot.

Production & Assembly Cost Estimates – First Principles

Component Costs: Optimus is essentially an electromechanical system combining hardware (actuators, sensors, battery) and AI software. Using first-principles, we estimate:

• Materials: The robot frame likely uses lightweight metals (aluminum, possibly carbon composites) and plastics. Bulk material cost might be a few thousand dollars per unit at scale. For example, Boston Dynamics’ Spot (a quadruped) has a price of ~$74,500, reflecting expensive R&D and low-volume production. Optimus targets far lower cost by leveraging Tesla’s supply chain and high-volume production expertise.
• Actuators & Electronics: High-performance servos, electric motors, Li-ion battery cells, cameras, and sensors drive costs. At scale, Tesla could produce custom actuators in-house (similar to their electric vehicle motors). Bulk cost per motor might drop below $100 when mass-produced. The entire actuator/sensor suite could be several thousand dollars initially, trending down with volume.
• Labor & Factory Overheads: Early on, assembly involves significant skilled labor (robotics experts, engineers). Tesla might deploy advanced automation to build robots (a “robots building robots” paradigm). Initially, assembly cost per unit could be high (tens of thousands of dollars) due to low volume, but economies of scale are expected. Elon Musk has hinted that once production exceeds ~1 million units/year, the production cost per Optimus could fall below $20,000. This implies aggressive factory automation and learning curve effects reducing labor per unit dramatically.
• R&D and Tooling Amortization: Tesla has likely invested billions in R&D (e.g., a notional $2B already expensed) to develop Optimus. Initial units might carry a cost premium to recoup this. For instance, early low-volume Gen-1 prototypes might “cost” hundreds of thousands each (similar to one-off robots in labs). However, by Gen-3 with refined design, Tesla expects to “use existing Gigafactory capacity” and spend an additional ~$20B to scale production. These investments (for tooling, supplier contracts, new facilities) would amortize over millions of units.

Factory Scaling: Tesla is building new production lines (possibly at Gigafactories or dedicated “Bot” factories). Agility Robotics’ new RoboFab factory (70,000 sq. ft.) can produce up to 10,000 humanoid robots per year, indicating the physical scale needed. Tesla, envisioning hundreds of thousands to millions of bots, will need much larger facilities or multiple factories. They might repurpose parts of existing Gigafactories. Economies of scale should drive per-unit costs down sharply after the first ~50,000 units.

In summary, initial production & assembly cost per Optimus could be ~$100,000+ in early pilot builds (2024–2025), but with design iteration and volume manufacturing (by 2028–2030), it could drop to ~$20,000 or less. For our five-year scope, a reasonable cost estimate by year five (2029/2030) is $25,000 per unit (assuming some scale, but not yet millions/year).

Recommended Article: Tesla Bot Optimus: Is $5,000 per Share (TSLA) Realistic?

Market Pricing Estimates

Target Price Range: Elon Musk indicated Optimus should cost “less than a car,” roughly $20,000–$30,000 at scale. This suggests Tesla aims to price Optimus in the price range of a mid-level sedan. By positioning it at ~$25,000 in the long run, Tesla signals mass-market ambitions (both for businesses and eventually consumers).

• Initial Pricing Strategy: Initially, to cover high R&D and low volume, Tesla might price Optimus higher (perhaps $100,000+ for early units sold in 2025–2026 to enterprise clients, similar to how new tech is often premium-priced). Early adopters (factories, logistics firms) might pay a premium if the robot demonstrably fills labor gaps. However, to achieve wide adoption, Tesla would need to rapidly reduce the price.
• Competitive Benchmarking: Today’s advanced humanoid robots (often research prototypes like Boston Dynamics’ Atlas) cost in the high six figures (if they were sold). Simpler commercial robots like Agility’s Digit or industrial robot arms can cost tens of thousands. Agility’s Digit robot is rumored to be priced around $70k–$100k for early partners, though official prices aren’t widely published. Tesla likely subsidizes initial pricing expecting future economies of scale – a strategy similar to how Tesla approached EV pricing (high initial price, then introducing cheaper models).
• Consumer vs. Business Pricing: For businesses, the value proposition is cost savings (labor replacement or augmentation). A $25k robot that can work 20 hours/day could be compelling if it replaces a human worker (with fully loaded annual cost $30k–$50k). For consumers, $25k is steep, so initial consumer adoption might be limited to high-income or special-needs scenarios. Over time (beyond five years), consumer prices may need to drop below $20k or Tesla might introduce financing models (e.g., robots-as-a-service or leasing).

Profit Margin Targets: Tesla historically enjoys healthy margins on EVs, and Musk suggested robot manufacturing cost could be ~60% of sale price, implying 40% gross margin. If Optimus sells for $25k, cost of goods target is ~$15k (long-term). Achieving this in five years is ambitious; realistically, margins might be thin or negative in early years, then improving with scale. For scenario modeling:

• Optimistic: Gross margin ~30-40% by year five (high volume, efficient production).
• Realistic: Gross margin ~20% by year five (moderate scale).
• Pessimistic: Break-even or low single-digit margin (if costs stay high or price must be cut to drive adoption).

Adoption Rates by Industry & Use-Cases

Tesla’s Optimus is touted as a general-purpose, bipedal robot aimed at performing “unsafe, repetitive or boring” tasks. Adoption will vary by industry based on need and ROI:

• Manufacturing & Warehousing: Likely early adopters. Robots can work alongside humans or in lights-out environments to perform material handling, assembly, or packaging. Labor shortages and rising wages drive interest. Tesla itself plans to deploy “a few thousand Optimus robots in its factories by end of 2025” as a testbed. If successful, other manufacturers could follow. Over five years, factories might adopt robots for palletizing, machine tending, or intralogistics. Adoption Rate: Optimistic: 5-10% of large factories pilot or deploy some robots. Realistic: 1-5% of factories, mostly trials. Pessimistic: Niche trials only, <1%.
• Logistics & Retail: Tasks like lifting boxes, moving goods in warehouses, or restocking shelves could be done by humanoid robots. Amazon’s investment in robotics (e.g., Agility’s Digit) shows industry appetite. A nimble humanoid can go where forklifts or fixed conveyors can’t. Over five years, large warehouse operators might incrementally add robots (dozens to hundreds) if they prove reliable. Retail in-store use (like shelf scanning or customer assistance) is possible but likely later due to complexity. Adoption Rate: Optimistic: Major logistics firms deploy robots in several warehouses; hundreds per company. Realistic: Focused pilots (tens of robots). Pessimistic: Limited tests, waiting for tech maturity.
• Healthcare & Service: In elder care, hospitals, or hospitality, humanoid robots could assist with lifting patients, delivering supplies, cleaning, or security patrols. While potential is high (e.g., helping aging populations), regulatory and social acceptance hurdles exist. Within five years, expect small-scale deployments in controlled environments (some hospitals using robots for delivery, senior homes piloting one robot for assistance). Adoption Rate: Optimistic: Many pilot programs, early robot “orderlies” in top hospitals. Realistic: Few high-profile trials. Pessimistic: Very limited due to safety/regulation.
• Consumers (Home Robots): This is perhaps the most transformative but also the most uncertain segment. A truly useful home robot (for cleaning, lawn mowing, fetching items, companionship) at reasonable cost could see massive demand – Musk even mused “everyone’s going to want their Optimus buddy”. However, technical capabilities may not meet the broad expectations within five years. Early adopter consumers might be those with disabilities or high income tech enthusiasts. Adoption Rate: Optimistic: Tens of thousands of wealthy/global early adopters buy a Tesla Bot as a novelty or helper by 2029. Realistic: Very few consumer sales (technology not ready or price too high). Pessimistic: Essentially zero consumer uptake in five years (focus remains B2B).

Incentives for Business Adoption: The primary driver is ROI via labor replacement or augmentation:

• Robots can work 24/7 without breaks, potentially boosting productivity. For instance, one Optimus working three shifts could replace 2-3 human workers in certain roles, yielding savings after the upfront cost.
• Industries with labor shortages or high injury risk (e.g. mining, agriculture, construction) have strong incentives to automate dangerous or undesirable jobs. Optimus could be attractive if it reduces injury liability and fills roles humans don’t want.
• Consistency and precision: Robots provide consistent output, which can improve quality and reduce waste in manufacturing processes.
• For Tesla, using Optimus internally can reduce car production costs, indirectly boosting margins on Tesla’s core business (a strategic incentive).

Adoption Hurdles: Despite incentives, companies will weigh:

• Reliability: Robots must operate with minimal downtime. Early versions might be prone to failures or require lots of maintenance (as seen with many new robotics technologies).
• Integration: Workplaces must be modified to accommodate robots (safety protocols, layout changes). Not all facilities can easily integrate a bipedal robot without planning.
• Workforce reaction: Unions or employee groups may resist rapid robot deployment if it threatens jobs, potentially causing industrial relations issues or requiring careful change management.

Given these factors, initial adoption (2025–2027) will likely be cautious – small pilots proving the business case. If those are successful, late-decade adoption (2028–2030) could accelerate in the optimistic scenario.

Scenario Analysis – Optimus Segment Impact

We develop three scenarios with assumptions on unit sales, margins, and adoption pace:

1. Optimistic Scenario (Widespread Adoption)

Adoption & Sales: In this scenario, Tesla overcomes technical challenges swiftly. By 2025, Optimus is commercially available and industries eagerly adopt. Assume:

• Units Sold: Perhaps 50,000 units/year by year 3 (2027), scaling to 200,000+ units/year by year 5 (2029). This would be extraordinary growth, akin to Tesla’s Model 3 ramp but in robotics. Widespread industry acceptance means multiple sectors use Optimus, and Tesla even starts limited consumer sales (e.g., a home robot variant).
• Market Penetration: Tesla captures a substantial share of the robotics market. If the overall robotics (humanoid + other) market is ~$50B by 2027, Tesla’s humanoid could take, say, 10-20% of the addressable tasks (given few competitors at scale). Musk even floated reaching 25% of the overall robotics market in 5 years, which is highly ambitious. Optimistic case: Tesla gets to ~15-25% of relevant market by 2029.

Production Efficiency & Costs: High volume enables Tesla to refine manufacturing:

• Gigafactories achieve automotive-like throughput for Optimus. Perhaps 1+ million units cumulative produced over 5 years.
• Economies of scale push unit cost down toward the $20k target. Let’s say by 2029, cost per robot ~$18,000.
• Sale Price: Could drop to ~$25,000 (Tesla passes some cost savings to drive volume). At $25k, if cost is $18k, gross margin ~28%. Tesla may also offer software subscriptions for advanced capabilities, boosting effective ASP (Average Selling Price).

Revenue & Earnings: By 2029, Optimus segment revenue could be significant:

• If 200k units sold at $25k = $5 billion annual revenue. If Tesla introduces higher-end models or charges for software, revenue could be higher.
• With ~30% gross margins and some operating leverage, net margins might be ~20% (given R&D and SG&A scaling). So $5B revenue yields ~$1B net profit from robots annually by year 5.

However, Musk’s truly optimistic vision goes further: He hinted at “1 million robots a year” at steady state and even 10 billion robots by 2040 globally (far beyond our 5-year scope). In the 5-year optimistic scenario, we stick to high but somewhat plausible numbers (hundreds of thousands, not millions, of units).

Market Cap Contribution: If in five years, Optimus is generating $1B in profit and growing fast, how much is that worth? Tech stocks often trade at high P/E multiples for growth segments. If we apply a PE of 50 (reflecting high growth expectations), that portion could be worth $50B. However, if investors see robots eventually overtaking Tesla’s auto business, they could price in a much larger future. Musk claimed Optimus could make Tesla a $2.5 – $25 trillion company long-term, which is extremely speculative. For five years out, under the optimistic scenario, Tesla’s total market cap might be, say, $1.5 – $2 trillion (with Optimus accounting for a significant chunk of the upside). This assumes Tesla’s EV, energy, and autonomy businesses also grow, but Optimus provides a major new revenue stream.

• Comparison to History: A rapid adoption curve here mimics smartphone or PC adoption rather than historical robots. Industrial robots took decades to reach 3 million in operation worldwide. Achieving ~0.2 million humanoid robots in five years would be unprecedented growth – hence “optimistic.” The scenario presumes the technology is so revolutionary and cost-effective that adoption outpaces the typical automation curve.

2. Realistic Scenario (Moderate Adoption & Steady Growth)

Adoption & Sales: In this balanced scenario:

• Optimus development continues, but scaling is slower due to technical and production challenges. By 2025, Tesla has a few hundred bots in its own factories (as planned), and sells limited units to strategic partners. Broader commercial sales maybe start in 2026–2027.
• Units Sold: Perhaps 5,000 units in 2026, growing to 20,000–50,000 units/year by 2029. This might mean a cumulative ~100k robots deployed in five years – significant, but not world-changing yet.
• Adoption is sector-specific: primarily large factories and warehouses with capital to experiment. Others wait for proof of ROI. Tesla might announce big orders (e.g., an automaker orders 1,000 bots for its plants in 2028 if early trials are good).

Production & Costs:

• Tesla faces scaling challenges (similar to early Model 3 “production hell”). Maybe delays in building the Optimus production line or unforeseen technical hurdles (e.g., actuator supply constraints) keep costs higher longer.
• By year 5, manufacturing is more efficient but not fully optimized. Unit cost could be ~$25,000.
• Sale Price: Possibly $30,000+ in this period, since demand is there but Tesla hasn’t slashed price yet. Tesla may still be recouping investment, so perhaps they price at $30k (with discounts on bulk orders).
• Gross margin might only be ~15-20% by year 5 (still ramping to target, and maybe Tesla competes on price to entice adopters).

Revenue & Earnings:

• At 50,000 units/year * $30k = $1.5B annual revenue by 2029. If net margins are say 10%, that’s $150M profit from the segment. More likely, net margins could be near zero in initial years (reinvesting in R&D, etc.) and turn positive by year 5.
• Cumulatively, over five years, the segment might contribute a few billion in revenue but only modest profit as it scales.

Market Cap Contribution:

• Investors may value the segment on potential rather than current profit. If by 2029 Optimus is clearly gaining traction with, say, 50k units/year and growing, the market will project future growth. Perhaps they assign a value of $20–30B to the robot business (e.g., a price-to-sales of ~10 on $3B sales expected a year or two beyond).
• Tesla’s total market cap in this scenario might be perhaps $1–1.2 trillion (growing vs. today but not exploding), with Optimus being one promising contributor among others (EVs, energy storage, etc.). It’s not yet the dominant story, but it adds a layer to Tesla’s tech narrative.
• Historical Parallel: This would mirror the early stage of past innovations – e.g., how Amazon’s AWS was a small part of revenue early on but had high strategic value. Or akin to how industrial robot adoption grew ~11% CAGR over years – steady but not instant ubiquity. A CAGR of, say, 50% in robots (from 5k to 50k units/year in 5 years) is fast but plausible in a niche.

3. Pessimistic Scenario (Slow Adoption & Challenges)

Adoption & Sales: Here, the road is rough:

• Technical limitations keep Optimus from being truly useful in varied tasks. It can do simple things, but perhaps human-level dexterity or autonomy isn’t achieved yet. Early pilot customers report frequent issues; some scale back trials.
• Units Sold: Only a few hundred in the first couple of years (2025–2026), mostly to Tesla for internal use and a handful to research partners. By 2029, maybe a few thousand total units in the field. Many potential clients take a “wait and see” approach, or competitors offer better niche solutions (e.g., specialized warehouse robots outperform a general humanoid for less cost).
• Market Penetration: negligible in most industries. The humanoid remains a curiosity or in limited roles (like how Honda’s Asimo never commercialized despite two decades of development).

Production & Costs:

• Without volume, costs remain high. Maybe Tesla hasn’t cracked high-speed production; each robot is semi-hand-built by technicians. Cost per unit might stay ~$100k or more in 2025–2027, limiting Tesla’s ability to cut price.
• Sale Price: Tesla might price each unit at $100k+ initially, which further dampens demand beyond R&D partners. Even if they lower it to, say, $50k by 2029, it’s still expensive for what it can do.
• The division could be a money sink – continuous R&D and capex without profitable returns in five years.

Revenue & Earnings:

• If only 5,000 units total are sold over five years at an average price of, say, $75k (starting high, coming down slightly), that’s ~$375M cumulative revenue – relatively insignificant for a company the size of Tesla.
• The segment likely runs at a loss (R&D expenses in the billions vs. meager revenue). In accounting, Tesla might even classify it under “Other” with minimal effect on overall financials.

Market Cap Contribution:

• Investors may discount the Optimus project entirely in valuation, seeing it as a moonshot that hasn’t panned out yet. Tesla’s market cap would then rely on its core EV/energy businesses. If those do fine, Tesla could still grow, but let’s say Optimus adds negligible value. Possibly even a slight drag if investors fear Tesla is overspending on a dream.
• Tesla’s market cap in 5 years under this scenario might be maybe $600–800B (incremental growth from EV business, but nowhere near the trillions, and Optimus hopes are postponed). Some might compare Optimus to other failed robotics ventures (e.g., SoftBank’s Pepper which halted production or Rethink Robotics’ collapse) – a cautionary tale, though Tesla likely wouldn’t give up entirely.
• Historical Note: This scenario mirrors the fact that humanoid robots have historically been very challenging to commercialize. Honda’s Asimo never made it to market, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas remains a research platform, and even successful robot makers often stick to simpler designs (robot arms, Roomba vacuums, etc.). So a slow trajectory wouldn’t be surprising in context.

Valuation Approach – Revenue and Earnings Multiples

To estimate Tesla’s future market cap from Optimus, we consider revenue and earnings contributions in each scenario, and apply multiples based on comparable segments:

• Revenue Multiples: High-growth tech/robotics companies can trade at 5–10× revenue (or more, if growth is very high and profitability in sight).
  • Optimistic: If Optimus revenue in 2029 is ~$5B and growth is 50%+ annually, a 10× multiple implies $50B segment value.
  • Realistic: If revenue ~$1B and growth 30%, maybe a 5× multiple = $5B value (growing but not yet huge).
  • Pessimistic: If revenue is <$0.1B, it’s immaterial; maybe valued at 0 or just seen as R&D.
• Earnings Multiples (P/E): If profitable, we can apply a P/E. However, in five years Optimus might still be scaling, so heavy reinvestment could depress reported earnings. In optimistic case, assume $1B profit, with a P/E of 50 → $50B. Realistic: $0.15B profit, maybe P/E 30 (less growthy) → ~$4.5B. Pessimistic: losses, so valued as optionality (say a few billion at best, or zero).

Total Tesla Market Cap: We then add this to Tesla’s base (the EV + energy + software business). Tesla’s current market cap is around ~$600B (as of early 2025). In five years, even without Optimus, Tesla could grow due to EV market expansion (some analysts see multi-trillion potential if autonomy, energy, etc., succeed). The Optimus segment could multiply Tesla’s value if successful or be marginal if not:

• Optimistic Total: Tesla could be well above $1T. For instance, ARK Invest’s bullish case sees ~$8T by 2030 with robotaxis. If we overlay Optimus success, some bulls talk about multi-trillion valuations (e.g., $2–3T). Musk’s extreme $25T claim is beyond 5-year scope and likely hyperbolic, but it frames how big the vision is.
• Realistic Total: Tesla maybe hits that $1–1.5T range by end of decade, with Optimus providing an extra 5-10% value uplift as the market waits for proof.
• Pessimistic Total: Tesla stays below $1T or even around current levels if EV market saturates or competition increases, and Optimus doesn’t excite investors.

Historical Automation Adoption Curves: Historically, the adoption of new automation tech (from industrial robots to personal computers) starts slow, then reaches an inflection point if value is clear:

• Industrial Robots: ~3 million in operation globally by 2021 after decades of growth; adoption was steady ~10-15% CAGR. A breakthrough like Optimus might accelerate the curve if it dramatically lowers cost or expands capabilities.
• PCs / Smartphones: Took 10-15 years from introduction to saturate the market. If robots follow a similar path, five years might only see early adopters, with a bigger boom coming later. Thus, a reasonable expectation is the realistic scenario, with exponential growth further out if/when the tech matures.

Risk Factors

Any valuation must be tempered by risks:

• Technological Challenges: Building a reliable humanoid is extremely hard. Vision, balance, dexterity, and general-purpose AI in unstructured environments are unsolved problems at scale. Tesla’s demos (e.g., Optimus dancing, doing basic tasks) are promising but still limited​businessinsider.com. There’s risk that Optimus cannot perform as advertised in real workplaces without extensive human oversight (teleoperation was used in demos). If the autonomy isn’t robust, adoption will stall.
• Production Delays: Tesla has a history of optimistic timelines. Musk said Optimus could be sold by end of 2024, but delays are possible. Any “production hell” or unforeseen manufacturing issues (like actuator yields, software bugs causing recalls, etc.) could slow rollout. If by 2027 Tesla still hasn’t delivered meaningful volume, the market will discount the hype.
• Competition: Tesla isn’t alone. Competitors include:
  • Agility Robotics (Digit): Already setting up a factory for 10k/year and partnering with firms like Ford.
  • Figure AI, Sanctuary, Apptronik – startups specifically working on humanoid robots, some with ex-NASA or Boston Dynamics talent. Also, Boston Dynamics (Hyundai) might eventually commercialize a humanoid (Atlas) or improved versions of Spot.
  • Traditional Robot Makers: Companies like ABB, Fanuc, etc., might not make humanoids yet, but could introduce new automation solutions that cover much of the use-case at lower cost (e.g., collaborative robot arms paired with mobile bases).
  • If a competitor cracks a particular niche (say warehouse box-lifting) with a simpler robot, they might dominate that niche over a generalist humanoid.
• Regulatory and Safety Hurdles: While there are no specific OSHA standards for robotics yet, safety regulations will evolve. Humanoid robots working around humans will need to be extremely safe (both physically and cyber-secure). Accidents involving robots could lead to public backlash or stricter rules (similar to how AV accidents slowed autonomous car enthusiasm). Governments might require certifications for robots in public spaces or labor law changes. Also, liability issues: who is responsible if a robot malfunctions and causes damage? Tesla will need robust safeguards (both hardware – emergency shutoffs, and software – reliable object/human recognition). Any high-profile incident could dampen adoption.
• Workforce and Societal Resistance: The idea of robots replacing human jobs will face resistance. Labor unions could lobby against robot deployments or demand contracts that limit job losses. Societal acceptance may depend on how displaced workers are handled. This could translate to political risk; e.g., incentives or penalties around automation might emerge (perhaps taxes on robots, as some have proposed, or conversely tax breaks for productivity). Public perception matters: if Optimus is seen as a job-killer or a security risk (hacking concerns), companies may be hesitant to adopt at large scale for fear of reputation or employee morale impact.
• Financial & Execution Risks: Tesla is investing heavily in this new venture. If the project overruns budgets or distracts management from core businesses, it could indirectly hurt Tesla’s financials. The company must execute on multiple fronts (EVs, energy, AI, and now robots). Execution missteps in one area could constrain resources for Optimus or vice versa.

In conclusion, Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot segment could redefine the company’s growth trajectory – it’s a potential force multiplier for Tesla’s market cap, but one fraught with uncertainty. The next five years will likely show whether Optimus can move from impressive prototypes to a meaningful commercial product. Under optimistic conditions, widespread adoption yields Tesla a strong new revenue stream and propels its valuation toward the trillions, aligning with Musk’s grand vision of Tesla as “the most valuable company by far” via robots. In a realistic scenario, progress is steady but measured – Optimus becomes a valuable side business, enhancing Tesla’s narrative as a tech leader, but not transforming its finances overnight. In a pessimistic scenario, Optimus faces a slow grind, adding little value by 2030, reminding us that robotics revolutions often take longer than anticipated (if they materialize at all).

Investors and analysts will be watching key milestones: successful large-scale pilot programs, cost per robot trends, and any sign of the “hockey stick” adoption curve. As with past automation trends, adoption may start slowly before reaching a tipping point – and Tesla is positioning Optimus to be ready for when that moment comes.

Sources:

• Musk’s Optimus cost prediction and capabilities
• Tesla’s internal market share and margin expectations for robots
• International Federation of Robotics data on automation trends
• Agility Robotics’ production plans
• Reuters on humanoid robot challenges (Honda, startups)
• Elon Musk’s vision of Optimus long-term impact
• Research conducted by ChatGPT Deep Research

Recommended Article: Tesla Bot Optimus: Is $5,000 per Share (TSLA) Realistic?

The post Tesla Optimus Robot Segment – Market Cap Potential Over 5 Years appeared first on Be on the Right Side of Change.

Valuing $NVIDIA as a Real Estate Company That Sells Housing to AI Agents ($100k/Share in 2034)

No financial advice!

The post The Age of $1 Trillion Profit Is Here appeared first on Be on the Right Side of Change.

Overview

Tesla Profit From Car Sales

Profit From Full Self-Driving (FSD)

Tesla’s ambitious Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology holds immense potential. With an estimated 24.6 million Tesla cars on the road by 2030, coupled with an expected FSD take rate of 10-20%, the company could generate substantial profits from this segment.

Moreover, envisioning a future where 20% of Tesla cars are utilized as tech-enabled robotaxis, each capable of generating $390 in daily revenue, Tesla could potentially add billions to its bottom line.

Profits From Robotaxi Network (Cyber Cabins)

Profits From Energy Business

Beyond automobiles, Tesla’s energy business presents another avenue for substantial growth. With a projected revenue growth exceeding 20% and a net margin surpassing 10%, Tesla could net over $2.1 billion in net income from this segment by 2030.

Profits From Humanoid Bot Optimus

Furthermore, the introduction of humanoid robots could revolutionize various industries. With each unit projected to yield a profit of $15,000, Tesla could potentially rake in a staggering $97 billion annually:

I must admit that I sandbagged these numbers. Reality may be much more bullish. Check out my two articles on this topic with a more realistic valuation:

• Tesla Bot Valuation ($15k/share)
• Tesla Bot Valuation ($5k/share)

Putting It All Together: $328 per Share (Total Ex Humanoid) and $1,169 per Share (Total)

In other words, I expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 10-36% from now to 2030. No investment advice! Thanks for reading.

Check out the Finxter YouTube channel to stay on the right side of change!

The post Tesla Stock Valuation ($1,169) Humanoid, FSD, Robotaxi, Cars, Energy appeared first on Be on the Right Side of Change.

Tesla is doubling down on its focus on becoming the global leader for large-scale AI applications such as self-driving cars and humanoid robots:

“While many are pulling back on their investments, we are investing in future growth
– including our AI infrastructure, production capacity, our Supercharger and service
networks and new products infrastructure – with $2.8B of capital expenditures in
Q1. […]

The future is not only electric, but also autonomous. We believe scaled autonomy is
only possible with data from millions of vehicles and an immense AI training cluster.
We have, and continue to expand, both. To make FSD (Supervised) 5 more
accessible, we reduced the price of subscription to $99/month and the purchase
price to $8,000 in the US.”

Tesla has been making some seriously cool strides in both AI software and hardware, aiming to bring us closer to the dream of full vehicle autonomy and even a ride-hailing service. They’re betting big on a “vision-only architecture” which means they’re using only cameras—no other sensors—paired with some pretty advanced neural networks that learn from a vast trove of real-world driving data.

Quick Overview of Tesla’s AI Efforts

Here’s a condensed bullet-point overview of Tesla’s AI efforts:

• AI & Robotics: Developing scalable autonomy for vehicles and robots using advanced AI and efficient inference hardware.
• Tesla Bot: Creating autonomous bi-pedal robots to perform repetitive or unsafe tasks, focusing on software for balance, navigation, and interaction.
• FSD Chip: Designing AI inference chips to maximize performance-per-watt for Full Self-Driving software.
• Dojo Chip: Building AI training chips to enhance performance and efficiency of the Dojo system.
• Dojo System: Constructing the Dojo system to improve machine learning compute power, featuring a public API for broader access.
• Neural Networks: Advancing deep learning to process real-time data from Tesla’s fleet for tasks like perception and control.
• Autonomy Algorithms: Crafting algorithms for accurate world representation and trajectory planning using combined sensor data.
• Code Foundations: Optimizing Autopilot software integration with custom hardware for enhanced performance and reliability.
• Evaluation Infrastructure: Developing tools for performance tracking and realistic testing using anonymized fleet data.

Full Self Driving (FSD)

Earlier this year, they launched FSD (Full Self-Driving) V12 in a supervised setup, and it’s been a game-changer, reinforcing Tesla’s approach towards scalable self-driving tech. They’re not stopping there, though. Tesla plans to beef up its core AI capabilities even more in the coming months.

You can see FSD 12.3.5 in action here — 40 minutes of almost flawless driving in the city!

In terms of hardware, they’ve completed the upgrade to Hardware 4.0. This new in-car computer boasts better processing power for AI and enhanced cameras to feed all that crucial visual data into Tesla’s neural nets.

[BREAKING] Tesla Car Drives Elon Musk in Epic Livestream (FSD V12): NOTHING BUT NETS–All The Way Down!

On the software side of things, Tesla is pushing the envelope with a 30-day free trial of FSD for eligible U.S. and Canadian cars. This version of FSD can handle tasks like lane changes, navigating forks in the road, and maneuvering around obstacles.

Plus, they’ve rolled out an Autopark feature for existing FSD and Enhanced Autopilot customers.

Ride Hailing and Robotaxi

Looking ahead, Tesla is diving into ride-hailing, promising to integrate this service right into the Tesla app. They believe that their software experience is unmatched and that the integration will be seamless.

I have to say, the app interface really looks fresh and clean and I can already see myself ordering Robotaxis (or integrating my Tesla car into the robotaxi network to earn revenue):

By the way, check out my Robotaxi simulation game for fun and learning:

Tesla Bot

Interestingly, Tesla didn’t mention any update on the Optimus humanoid robot in their most recent earnings report. Well, Elon did say in the earnings call that the Tesla bot will be able to perform factory work by the end of this year (2024).

Tesla Bot Optimus: Is $5,000 per Share (TSLA) Realistic?

The post Tesla Leaps in Artificial Intelligence – Robotaxi, Optimus Bot, and FSD Updates Q1 2024 appeared first on Be on the Right Side of Change.

The Tesla Bot (Optimus) and Figure AI Bot (Figure 01) are both humanoid robots designed to perform tasks in human and factory environments.

Physical Features Tesla Bot

The Tesla Bot stands at 5 feet 8 inches (173 cm) and weighs 160 pounds (73 kg)[3]. It has a humanoid design with arms, legs, and a head, resembling the human body[1]. The Tesla Bot is equipped with a 2.3 kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery pack located in the chest, providing enough energy for about a full day of work[1]. It features 28 structural actuators for movement[1] and the hands have 11 degrees of freedom, allowing for complex movements[1].

Capabilities Tesla Bot

The Tesla Bot can carry up to 45 pounds (20 kg) and deadlift up to 150 pounds (68 kg)[3]. It can move at a speed of up to 5 mph (8 kph)[3]. The central computer, or ‘brain’, is located in the torso and operates under Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) computer[3]. The face will have an interactive screen for communication and information display[3].

The development of humanoid robots, such as the Tesla Bot and Figure 01, has seen significant progress in terms of walking, balancing, and interacting with the world[6].

Use Cases

Both robots are designed to take over dangerous, repetitive, or undesirable tasks. The Tesla Bot is envisioned to perform tasks such as grocery shopping and factory work[3][4]. The specific use cases for the Figure AI Bot are more in factory environments in the beginning at least.

Citations:

• [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWGrYqtZSb0
• [2] https://www.tesla.com/AI
• [3] https://www.toolify.ai/ai-news/the-future-of-tesla-a-gamechanging-robot-30403
• [4] https://johnkoetsier.com/tesla-bot/
• [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaYICsYopfs
• [6] https://eightify.app/summary/artificial-intelligence-and-robotics/humanoid-robot-showdown-tesla-bot-vs-figure-01-scott-walter-reacts
• [7] https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/30/23374729/tesla-bot-ai-day-robot-elon-musk-prototype-optimus-humanoid
• [8] https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-essay-explains-tesla-bot-optimus-design/
• [9] https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/28/23376456/elon-musk-tesla-bot-ai-day-event-optimus-prototype-predictions
• [10] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9dUau8Yjjw
• [11] https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/what-is-tesla-optimus-robot-your-questions-answered/
• [12] https://www.firgelliauto.com/blogs/actuators/how-do-tesla-bot-actuators-actually-work
• [13] https://www.pingzine.com/featured-article/the-humanoid-robots-have-arrived-tesla-bot-sanctuary-ai-phoenix-and-figure-s-figure-01/
• [14] https://www.cnet.com/videos/analyzing-the-details-in-teslas-latest-optimus-robot-demo/
• [15] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.04949.pdf
• [16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVWkqyuX1lM
• [17] https://www.wevolver.com/specs/tesla-bot-aka-optimus
• [18] https://bdtechtalks.com/2022/10/03/teslas-optimus-robot/
• [19] https://spectrum.ieee.org/tesla-optimus-robot
• [20] https://www.teslaoracle.com/2023/09/26/tesla-shares-optimus-robots-ai-progress-elon-musk-pledges-to-make-it-safer-with-convenient-on-off-mechanisms/
• [21] https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/16rgx1d/why_is_the_tesla_bot_impressive/
• [22] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9JlI2ZmqAU

How Do Tesla Bot Optimus and Figure AI Bot Compare in Terms of Cost and Availability?

The Tesla Bot, also known as Optimus, is expected to cost less than $20,000, according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk[1][3][5][7][13]. The exact price is not yet confirmed, and it’s worth noting that some experts have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of this price point given the high cost of the hardware involved[3]. And given the huge value it provides for factories, the price may easily reach hundreds of thousands of USD. The Tesla Bot is expected to be available to the public sometime between 2025 and 2027[3][7].

As for the Figure AI Bot, also known as Figure 01, the company plans to offer its robot services via a subscription-based contract[12]. This model is intended to make the robot more affordable than purchasing it outright, but specific pricing details are not known yet.

While both the Tesla Bot and Figure AI Bot are expected to be relatively affordable for humanoid robots, the specific cost and availability details are not yet fully confirmed. The Tesla Bot is expected to cost less than $20,000 and be available between 2025 and 2027, while the Figure AI Bot is expected to be offered via a subscription-based contract, with no specific cost or availability timeline provided.

Citations:

• [1] https://www.lifewire.com/tesla-robot-news-and-rumors-6265340
• [2] https://www.figure.ai
• [3] https://builtin.com/robotics/tesla-robot
• [4] https://www.robotics247.com/article/figure_ai_humanoid_robot_takes_first_steps_startup_gets_intel_investment
• [5] https://spectrum.ieee.org/tesla-optimus-robot
• [6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2023/07/18/humanoid-robots-are-hot-vcs-say-they-could-outnumber-humans-relatively-quickly/
• [7] https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/
• [8] https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/17/figures-humanoid-robot-walks-for-the-camera/
• [9] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCHRhDh7KD4
• [10] https://www.webfx.com/martech/pricing/ai/
• [11] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/20/getting-off-the-fence-tesla-bot-looks-like-teslas-next-giant-success/
• [12] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-24/ai-startup-figure-raises-70-million-for-humanoid-robot
• [13] https://www.freethink.com/hard-tech/tesla-robot
• [14] https://spectrum.ieee.org/figure-humanoid-robot
• [15] https://www.robotics247.com/article/figure_ai_raises_70m_series_a_commercialize_humanoid_robot

Tesla Bot (Optimus) Features and Capabilities

Physical Features

• Height and Weight: The Tesla Bot, also known as Optimus, stands at 5 feet 8 inches (173 cm) and weighs 160 pounds (73 kg)[3].
• Structure: It has a humanoid design with arms, legs, and a head, resembling the human body[1].
• Battery: Equipped with a 2.3 kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery pack located in the chest, providing enough energy for about a full day of work[1].
• Actuators: Features 28 structural actuators for movement[1].
• Hands: The hands have 11 degrees of freedom, allowing for complex movements[1].

Capabilities

• Carrying Capacity: Optimus can carry up to 45 pounds (20 kg) and deadlift up to 150 pounds (68 kg)[3].
• Speed: It can move at a speed of up to 5 mph (8 kph)[3].
• Brain: The central computer, or ‘brain’, is located in the torso and operates under Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) computer[3].
• Communication: The face will have an interactive screen for communication and information display[3].

Use Cases

• General Purpose: Optimus is envisioned to perform dangerous, repetitive, and boring tasks, such as manufacturing assistance and household chores[3].
• Factory Work: It is designed to operate tools and manipulate objects in factories and other settings[7].

Figure AI Bot (Figure 01) Features and Capabilities

Physical Features

• Height and Weight: Figure 01 has a height of 5’6″ and weighs 60 kg[6].
• Design: It is designed to be a general-purpose humanoid robot[2].
• System: The robot is electrically powered[6].

Capabilities

• Payload: It can handle a payload of up to 20 kg[6].
• Runtime: Offers a runtime of 5 hours[6].
• Speed: Capable of moving at a speed of 1.2 M/S[6].

Use Cases

• Labor Shortages: Aimed at addressing labor shortages and eliminating the need for unsafe and undesirable jobs[4].
• Learning: Figure 01 can learn tasks autonomously by observing humans, as demonstrated by its ability to learn to brew coffee after a 10-hour training period[8].

Development Status

• Alpha Build: Figure has completed its alpha build and is working on second-generation hardware and software[2].
• Learning Capabilities: The robot can watch humans doing tasks, build its own understanding, and start performing them autonomously[12].

In summary, both the Tesla Bot and Figure AI Bot are designed to integrate into human environments and take over tasks that are dangerous, repetitive, or undesirable. The Tesla Bot has a more robust carrying capacity and speed, while the Figure AI Bot emphasizes autonomous learning and a faster development cycle with new versions every six months[2][3][6]. Both bots are still in development, with Tesla’s Optimus having been demonstrated to walk untethered and Figure’s robot expected to start taking its first steps[1][2].

Recommended: Tesla Bot Valuation: $15,625 per Share Possible?

Citations:

• [1] https://builtin.com/robotics/tesla-robot
• [2] https://spectrum.ieee.org/figure-humanoid-robot
• [3] https://www.wevolver.com/specs/tesla-bot-aka-optimus
• [4] https://www.designboom.com/technology/ai-humanoid-robot-figure-01-assist-people-handy-helper-04-06-2023/
• [5] https://createdigital.org.au/how-realistic-is-elon-musks-tesla-bot/
• [6] https://www.figure.ai
• [7] https://spectrum.ieee.org/tesla-optimus-robot
• [8] https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/figure-101-ai-powered-humanoid-robot
• [9] https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2021/08/tesla-bot-is-the-companys-troubled-autopilot-system-in-humanoid-form/
• [10] https://www.axios.com/2023/03/17/robots-humanoid-figure-tesla-robotics-ai
• [11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiQkeWOFwmk
• [12] https://newatlas.com/robotics/figure-humanoid-learning-tasks-autonomously/
• [13] https://www.shrm.org/executive-network/insights/elon-musk-unveils-tesla-bot-humanoid-robot-made-teslas-self-driving-ai
• [14] https://newatlas.com/robotics/figure-bmw-humanoid/
• [15] https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/10/01/tesla-bot-optimus-everything-we-know-so-far/
• [16] https://www.cnet.com/science/elon-musk-unveils-tesla-bot-a-humanoid-robot-utilizing-vehicle-ai/
• [17] https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/18/figures-humanoid-robot-takes-its-first-steps/?guccounter=1
• [18] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVGK0eRPp3I
• [19] https://www.tesla.com/AI
• [20] https://newatlas.com/robotics/openai-figure-ai-robotics/
• [21] https://eightify.app/summary/artificial-intelligence-and-robotics/tesla-bot-gen-2-demo-expert-analysis-and-improvements
• [22] https://www.actuia.com/english/tesla-bot-the-humanoid-robot-project-presented-by-elon-musk-exploits-autonomous-vehicle-technology/
• [23] https://www.therobotreport.com/humanoids-ready-to-take-first-steps/
• [24] https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-essay-explains-tesla-bot-optimus-design/
• [25] https://www.simplilearn.com/tutorials/artificial-intelligence-tutorial/humanoid-robots

The post Tesla Optimus vs Figure AI Bot appeared first on Be on the Right Side of Change.

Tesla, at the forefront of electric vehicles and autonomous technology, harnesses Python’s strengths in developing its cutting-edge technologies.

Introduction to Tesla and Python

Tesla, known for its innovative electric vehicles, the Tesla Bot, and solar energy products, is a technology-driven company that intertwines software programming intricately with hardware design.

Python, with its high readability, extensive libraries, and widespread use in AI, aligns with Tesla’s drive towards automation and intelligent systems.

Does Tesla Use Python?

Tesla incorporates Python in its software development process, particularly in the initial phases of its neural network (NN) designs for rapid iteration.

These designs are later converted to C/C++ for execution at speed, signifying the dual role Python plays within Tesla’s AI development cycle (source).

Moreover, Tesla uses Python in conjunction with frameworks like PyTorch, which is integral to the company’s self-driving capabilities (source).

Using PyTorch to Build a Working Neural Network

The Tech Landscape of Tesla

The technological environment at Tesla is one where software meets hardware seamlessly.

Python is part of this landscape, providing the necessary tools for Tesla’s engineers and researchers to develop software that drives the intelligence and automation behind Tesla’s products.

Concrete Projects of Tesla using Python: Python is used at Tesla for diverse tasks, including but not limited to, data analysis, modeling, and simulation required for the development of autonomous driving technologies, battery management systems, and other vehicle software (source).

A High-Level Overview of Python in the Context of Tesla

At a high level, Python at Tesla serves several pivotal roles: it is a key tool for the company’s AI research and development endeavors and an instrumental part of the machine learning infrastructure that powers vehicular automation.

Here’s a concise bullet list of applications for Python at Tesla:

• Autonomous Vehicle Algorithms: Developing machine learning models for self-driving cars.
• Data Analysis and Processing: Handling large datasets from vehicle sensors for insights and improvements.
• Battery Management Systems: Software for monitoring and optimizing battery performance.
• Simulation and Testing: Creating simulations for vehicle systems and new features.
• Vehicle Software Development: Writing and updating software for in-car entertainment and functionality.
• Manufacturing Automation: Automating aspects of the manufacturing process.
• Network Security: Enhancing cybersecurity measures for connected vehicles.
• Infrastructure Management: Managing server infrastructure and data storage.
• User Interface Design: Developing the user interface for the car’s touchscreen and Tesla app.
• Predictive Maintenance: Analyzing vehicle data to predict and prevent potential issues.

Does Tesla Employ Python Developers?

Tesla seeks Python developers for roles in AI, ML, and data analytics to support its extensive technology operations. Working on such projects, these developers contribute significantly to Tesla’s vision of autonomous driving and other technological innovations.

How Much Can You Earn at Tesla with Python?

Python developers at Tesla can anticipate compensation that befits the innovative work the company is renowned for. Salaries are competitive with the technology and automotive industries, $120k or more, due to the high impact of the Python developers’ work.

As of 2024, employees at Tesla earn an average annual total compensation of around $190,000. The range of salaries at Tesla varies significantly, typically spanning from approximately $141,000 to $550,000. This data is based on information from verified profiles and provides a general idea of the compensation at Tesla across different roles and levels of experience (source):

According to various sources, Python developers’ average annual salaries range based on their experience and roles.

Junior Python developers are reported to earn from $85,000 to $92,000, while more experienced Python developers can be looking at about $100K to over $117K annually (Anywhere.epam, CareerFoundry). High-value consulting services in Python can also command hourly rates of $100-$200 or more (Medium – Crypto and Money).

Does Tesla Provide Stock Options for Python Developers?

As a company that prides itself on innovation and advancement, Tesla offers comprehensive benefit packages to its employees, including stock options. For Python developers, particularly those contributing to the company’s core AI initiatives, such stock options would be a significant part of the employment package.

Future Trends of Using Python to Accelerate the Growth of Tesla

Tesla’s future endeavors in Python likely include continuous improvements and breakthroughs in AI and autonomous driving technologies:

Tesla Bot Optimus: Is $5,000 per Share (TSLA) Realistic?

Moreover, the development of Python itself, such as the anticipated advancements in Python 4.0, points to further integration of the language into Tesla’s technology stack (source).

In conclusion, Python’s prominence within Tesla is a testament to the language’s adaptability and capabilities, particularly in AI and ML, areas where Tesla aims to lead. Its role within Tesla’s technology paradigm lies at the core of the company’s innovation and market dominance goals.

Sources:

• Hashdork – Programming languages used at Tesla
• Analytics India Mag – How Tesla Uses PyTorch
• Analytics India Mag – Is Tesla Dumping Python For This Programming Language
• Medium – Python packages that Tesla uses

The post Does Tesla Use Python? appeared first on Be on the Right Side of Change.

Tesla’s humanoid bot, “Optimus“, is not a mere vision anymore. Real bots are built, doing real work. I’ve written two articles attempting to value its impact on the TSLA stock price in the long term:

• Tesla Bot Optimus: Is $5,000 per Share (TSLA) Realistic?
• Tesla Bot Valuation: $15,625 per Share Possible?

But to conduct a realistic valuation, we first need to know the bot’s price point – and the value it provides. But first things first:

What Will Tesla Optimus Cost?

The Tesla bot demand significantly depends on its pricing, so this question is highly relevant:

Here are some first-principles considerations:

• If the Tesla bot would cost $1,000 and it could do all the manual tasks we humans can do, possibly more, most of us would buy one. The TAM would go into the billions and billions of bots sold.
• If the Tesla bot would cost $100,000 but could do nothing except walk around and film the environment, the TAM would be dramatically smaller. It would be bought by a few rich people to enhance the security of their mansions by some YouTubers to capture great imagery and video footing.
• If the Tesla bot would cost $100,000 but could do everything humans do and more, the TAM would still be hundreds of millions of sold units annually because companies now pay that amount for annual human labor and the bot would be a one-time purchase. The ROI would be insane.

First, we’ll establish a trivial price point between $1,000 and $100,000 per bot. Elon Musk announced at AI day that the Tesla bot price would be around $20,000 per unit. He has been right with many Tesla product price predictions in the past.

You’ll find Elon’s bot price announcement in this older video (~minute 2:22):

Elon Musk: “Optimus is designed to be an extremely capable robot, made in very high volume – probably millions of units – and it is expected to cost much less than a car. So, I would say probably less than $20,000.”

Next, I’ll give a list of price point predictions from various industry experts and Tesla investors:

• $20,000 per Optimus bot selling millions of units at an unspecified future date (Elon Musk)
• $25,000 per Optimus bot at 20 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Farzad)
• $60,000 per Optimus bot at a 0.55 million annual unit sales (Scheiwiller)
• $65,000 per Optimus bot at 7.7 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Invest Answers)
• $100,000 per Optimus bot at 100 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Warren Redlich)
• $234,000 per Optimus bot at 1.4 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Rebellionaire)

You may wonder why many assume a higher sales price than the official $20,000 per bot estimated by Elon. The reason is simply that the humanoid bot already has a utility value of tens of thousands of USD per year.

Some people ask: If Tesla could sell all bots it can produce for $100k per unit, why should they sell it for less?

Let’s have a look at its utility:

What Will Tesla Bot Be Able to Do?

… as a factory worker: (100 million to 1 billion deployed units)

Tesla’s Optimus robot outshines human workers in various aspects: it operates tirelessly 24/7 without fatigue, eliminates human error, ensures consistent precision in tasks, reduces workplace injuries by taking over hazardous jobs, and adapts to diverse roles in manufacturing with its advanced AI and machine learning capabilities.

Its deployment leads to significant cost savings in the long term, improves overall efficiency, and offers scalability in production unlike human labor.

Additionally, Optimus can work in extreme conditions unsuitable for humans, such as high-temperature environments or areas requiring extreme precision, thereby expanding the operational capabilities of businesses.

Tesla’s Optimus robot also presents advantages in terms of management and overhead costs compared to human workers.

It does not require benefits like health insurance, social security, or pensions, and is immune to issues like dissatisfaction with working conditions, workplace disputes, or the need for breaks and vacations.

Furthermore, Optimus is not subject to the complexities of labor union negotiations or demands for salary increases, and it lacks the capacity for complaints or grievances, streamlining workforce management and reducing administrative and HR-related costs.

This makes Optimus a straightforward, cost-effective solution for tasks where such human-related factors are a consideration. Hundreds of millions of workers worldwide could be cost-effectively replaced by a humanoid Tesla bot today or in the very near future without assuming any further breakthrough in AI.

… as a private gadget like a smartphone: (1 billion to 10 billion deployed units)

Tesla’s Optimus could also emerge as a personal device, just like your smartphone. It’s there to handle all your household chores tirelessly, around the clock.

Optimus learns your preferences and adapts to your needs, doing everything from tidying up to complex tasks.

Tesla’s Optimus could significantly add value by performing tasks such as cleaning and organizing your home, cooking meals, doing laundry, and gardening.

It could also assist with personal care for the elderly or those with disabilities, handle shopping and errands, provide home security, manage smart home devices, and even offer educational support like tutoring for children.

Its presence could effectively reduce the time and effort you spend on routine chores, allowing you more freedom to focus on what you enjoy.

It’s like having a multi-functional helper at home, reducing your need for various gadgets.

Plus, it seamlessly connects with your smart home and personal devices, making your life more convenient and efficient. Think of it as an indispensable part of your daily routine, enhancing your living experience significantly.

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