👉 This email is written on 02/07/2024 as part of the free Finxter newsletter. Join >100k tech enthusiasts!
Here’s The Script™ society wants you to follow:
Work hard, be disciplined, study (and study some more) – and reach success.
Well, society has no money-back guarantee (unlike Finxter). More importantly, you won’t get the lost time back after following a flawed script for decades.
~~~
Let’s travel back in time a century:
Suppose you’re a top horse carriage producer in 1919 with exceptional skill, work ethics, and a loyal customer base.
You’re top 1%, well respected, and wealthy.
You teach your kids the secrets to success in the horse carriage business: hard physical labor and strong woods to build lasting carriages.
You know how to feed and nurture your horses to get the most out of them. In fact, you know everything about your business…
… yet – ten tough years later, you’re forced to close your failing business in 1929. Everything is lost.
How did your thriving business go from success to failure?
It wasn’t the lack of skill, talent, work ethic, intelligence, or effort.
The simple reason your business failed was that you chose the wrong environment.
How could you have prevented the lurking catastrophe?
It has nothing to do with IQ or raw energy.
It has everything to do with your ability to stop for a moment and think about how you spend your time.
I’m not talking about tracking your hours so you can be more productive in your job. I’m talking about stopping everything you do, go for a long walk, and ask yourself the big questions:
🚀 Action Step: Are you in the right environment that’s future-proof, growing, and deserving of your limited time on the planet?
~~
In case you need some inspiration, I just studied ARK’s new Big Ideas 2024 (recommended read). Here’s the TLDR of some rapidly growing industries that may be worthy of our time:
Artificial Intelligence: AI training costs will drop by ~75% annually between 2024 and 2030 with an expected CAGR of ~46%!
👉 IQ Just Got 10,000x Cheaper: Declining Cost Curves in AI Training
Energy Storage: Electric vehicles (EVs) will likely account for >90% of vehicle sales in 2030. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the last five years was well above 33% due to Wright’s Law in declining battery costs.
Batteries are the most expensive part of EVs but they have already declined by three orders of magnitude. The cost decline remains stable, similar to Moore’s Law in chip production.
👉 The War between Tech Deflation & Monetary Inflation
During the next few years, we’ll see average EV sales price drop further, expanding the total addressable market exponentially.
Like the horse carriage industry, combustion engine vehicles are dying out.
Robotics: Industrial robot costs have been dropping 50% for every cumulative doubling in production.
Advances in computer vision and deep learning have improved robot performance 33-fold in 7 years. Industrial robots already surpass human performance by >2x and who knows what the upper limit will be?
Amazon will soon employ more robots than humans (possibly in 2024).
Self-driving cars are also robots on wheels. They are already safer than human drivers and keep improving every year:
👉 NOTHING BUT NETS–All The Way Down!
Generative AI, LLMs, and Transformers are already capable of controlling robots:
👉 ChatGPT Breaks New Ground in Robotics! This New Microsoft Research Shows How
And the humanoids are coming:
👉 Estimated Costs of the Tesla Bot Optimus
3D printing is estimated to grow at a ~40% annual rate between 2024 and 2030.
Money-Over-IP: A peer-to-peer digital monetary system with absolute scarcity enabling Internet-native money-over-IP for AIs and humans.
Bitcoin is the world’s most premium, most secure database.
It has outperformed every major asset over long time horizons. CAGR is roughly 44% between 2017 and 2024.
Traditional portfolio theory suggests a Bitcoin (or BTC ETF) allocation of 1-10% to maximize return and minimize the Sharpe ratio, i.e., reducing the risk-adjusted return of a given portfolio.
Digital wallets, in general, are expected to grow 123% annually through 2030!
Multinomic Sequencing: Health progress and programmable biology. Precision therapies are expected to grow at a ~28% annual rate (CAGR) between 2024 and 2030. Bioinformatics has improved proteomic throughput by 40-120% annually between 2011 and 2024!
In summary, these are the high-growth industries identified by ARK Invest:
- Artificial Intelligence:
- Bitcoin Allocation
- Bitcoin in 2023
- Smart Contracts
- Digital Consumers
- Digital Wallets
- Precision Therapies
- Multiomic Tools
- Electric Vehicles
- Robotics
- Robotaxis
- Autonomous Logistics
- Reusable Rockets
- 3D Printing
If you can work or invest in any of these fields, chances are you’ll …
… remain on the right side of change. 🚀
Chris
👩💻 Action step: Go for a long walk in nature – no podcast, alone – and think about your environment: industry, career, investments, people, location.