GPT-4’s Hindsight Portfolio for Painfully Obvious Investments Looking Back from 2030 ๐Ÿ”ฎ

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My goal with Finxter is to help you stay on the right side of change. I firmly believe that in the next decades, you need to be an asset holder and owner rather than just being a worker bee being increasingly replaced by automation.

But what investments to hold to be on the right side of change? I like simple investments so I’ve asked GPT-4 to provide simple and “painfully obvious” investments in a hypothetical scenario looking back from 2030 to 2023. Let’s call it GPT-4’s Hindsight Portfolio.

Here’s a structured table outlining the investment names, tickers, allocation percentages, and compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the Hindsight Portfolio from our hypothetical scenario looking back from 2030:

๐Ÿ“ˆ Disclaimer: These are not my recommendations. I cannot give investment advice because I’m not an investment advisor. However, I personally own some of these investments already.

Investing $1,000 in each position (2023)
Investment NameTickerAllocation %CAGR
Tesla, Inc.TSLA15%58%
Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN12%52%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL10%47%
Apple Inc.AAPL12%44%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT11%40%
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA10%55%
BitcoinBTC8%63%
EthereumETH7%65%
Block, Inc. (formerly Square, Inc.)SQ8%50%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing CompanyTSM7%46%
The total portfolio value after seven years starting with a $10,000 initial portfolio (2023)

Each investment listed is accompanied by its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2030, showcasing how a diversified portfolio might have allocated assets to these “obvious” winners.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Tesla’s pioneering role in the EV market and its expansion into renewable energy sectors made it an evident leader in the green revolution.

CAGR: 58%

Portfolio Allocation: 15%

Reflection: The juggernaut of innovation, Tesla didn’t just maintain its lead in electric vehicles; it expanded into full energy solutions, solidifying its place in every aspect of the sustainable future.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Amazon’s dominance in online retail and its leading position in cloud computing services were clear indicators of its growth trajectory.

CAGR: 52%

Portfolio Allocation: 12%

Reflection: Amazon continued to be the everything store, but its growth was supercharged by its cloud services division, which became essential infrastructure for the burgeoning digital economy.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

With Google’s unparalleled data network and investment in cutting-edge technologies, Alphabet was an obvious choice for long-term growth.

CAGR: 47%

Portfolio Allocation: 10%

Reflection: Alphabet’s vast portfolio of technology ventures, from AI to biotech, proved to be more than experimental; they became market leaders, driving incredible growth.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple’s consistent innovation, brand loyalty, and expansion into new product categories made it a clear bet for sustained success.

CAGR: 44%

Portfolio Allocation: 12%

Reflection: The titan of tech, Apple’s continued evolution of its product ecosystem, including a foray into autonomous vehicles, kept it at the forefront of consumer technology.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Microsoft’s entrenched position in enterprise software and rapid growth in cloud services marked it as an obvious investment for steady returns.

CAGR: 40%

Portfolio Allocation: 11%

Reflection: A silent but formidable giant, Microsoft’s cloud services and business software solidified its position as an indispensable part of global business infrastructure.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

NVIDIA’s dominance in GPUs and the rise of AI and gaming made it a clear beneficiary of tech trends.

CAGR: 55%

Portfolio Allocation: 10%

Reflection: NVIDIA remained essential, as its GPUs powered everything from the most advanced AI algorithms to the metaverse, and its growth reflected this centrality.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage and growing mainstream acceptance as a digital asset made it an obvious choice for high-yield returns.

CAGR: 63%

Portfolio Allocation: 8%

Reflection: Bitcoin emerged not just as a store of value, but as a foundational asset in the new age of digital finance, gaining widespread institutional acceptance.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum’s position as the leading platform for decentralized applications pointed to its significant potential for growth.

CAGR: 65%

Portfolio Allocation: 7%

Reflection: With successful protocol upgrades, Ethereum became the backbone of the decentralized web, leading to mass adoption of its smart contract platform.

Block, Inc. (SQ)

Block’s innovative approach to integrating digital payments and cryptocurrencies positioned it as a clear leader in the fintech space.

CAGR: 50%

Portfolio Allocation: 8%

Reflection: Block’s integrative approach to finance and cryptocurrency positioned it perfectly at the crossroads of fintech innovation, leading to exponential growth.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited (TSM)

TSMC’s status as the world’s leading semiconductor foundry made it an obvious pick in an increasingly chip-dependent tech landscape.

CAGR: 46%

Portfolio Allocation: 7%

Reflection: The unsung hero, TSM’s role in powering the semiconductor needs of a tech-hungry world drove its growth to new heights, making it the bedrock of the digital age.

Concluding Thoughts on GPT-4’s Hindsight Portfolio

Interestingly, the “Hindsight Portfolio” of 2030 illustrates the monumental influence of megatrends such as sustainable energy, e-commerce proliferation, cloud computing, AI advancements, and the ubiquity of digital finance.

  • Tesla benefited from the inexorable shift towards green energy and electric vehicles.
  • Amazon and Alphabet capitalized on the massive surge in online services and the integral nature of AI across industries.
  • Apple and Microsoft continued to expand their technological ecosystems, embedding themselves further into the fabric of daily life and business operations.
  • NVIDIA‘s hardware became the backbone of AI and gaming, industries that experienced explosive growth.
  • Cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the charge, redefined asset classes and opened new avenues for global transactions.
  • Block, formerly Square, became synonymous with fintech innovation, bridging the gap between traditional finance and the emerging digital economy.
  • And TSMC, the silent titan of semiconductors, enabled the technological leaps of countless industries.

Each investment vehicle, in its way, rode the wave of its respective megatrend that, in hindsight, seems like the most obvious investment decisions of the last decade.