Tesla Stock Valuation ($1,169) Humanoid, FSD, Robotaxi, Cars, Energy

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First of all, check out my video that guides you through my May 2024 valuation of the Tesla stock. It’ll be still relevant 2-3 years from now: πŸ‘‡

Tesla Stock Valuation ($1,169) Humanoid, FSD, Robotaxi, Cars, Energy

Overview

Tesla Profit From Car Sales

Profit From Full Self-Driving (FSD)

Tesla’s ambitious Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology holds immense potential. With an estimated 24.6 million Tesla cars on the road by 2030, coupled with an expected FSD take rate of 10-20%, the company could generate substantial profits from this segment.

Moreover, envisioning a future where 20% of Tesla cars are utilized as tech-enabled robotaxis, each capable of generating $390 in daily revenue, Tesla could potentially add billions to its bottom line.

Profits From Robotaxi Network (Cyber Cabins)

Profits From Energy Business

Beyond automobiles, Tesla’s energy business presents another avenue for substantial growth. With a projected revenue growth exceeding 20% and a net margin surpassing 10%, Tesla could net over $2.1 billion in net income from this segment by 2030.

Profits From Humanoid Bot Optimus

Furthermore, the introduction of humanoid robots could revolutionize various industries. With each unit projected to yield a profit of $15,000, Tesla could potentially rake in a staggering $97 billion annually:

I must admit that I sandbagged these numbers. Reality may be much more bullish. Check out my two articles on this topic with a more realistic valuation:

Putting It All Together: $328 per Share (Total Ex Humanoid) and $1,169 per Share (Total)

net profits ($B)30x multiple
car sales$26.0$224.1
fsd$5.8$50.0
robotaxi$4.2$36.2
energy$2.1$18.1
humanoids$97.5$840.5
totaltotal ex. humanoid
total net profit$135.6$38.1
30x multiple$4,068.0$1,143.0
shares outstanding3.483.48
share price (2030 exp)$1,169.0$328.4
share price (2024)$184.7$184.7
cagr36.01%10.07%

In other words, I expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 10-36% from now to 2030. No investment advice! Thanks for reading. β™₯️

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